Counter viewpoint...
If this wasn't a SARS virus from China and was rather the flu, would we have shut down the U.S. economy?
Much of what I read so far is that on average, the U.S. has hit the peak of this pandemic. Let's assume the end of the pandemic bell curve is as long as the beginning (instead of usually being shorter), so the numbers will double before it's over. That would be 1,115,180 confirmed cases and 44,218 deaths. Let's just assume any precision loss in reporting is the same for the flu and COVID-19.
Let's look at the flu numbers (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The average number of deaths due to the flu over the last 10 years has been around 37,000 per year (estimated 61,000 for last year). Cannot compare the case count between the flu and COVID-19 because though the flu had supposedly infected between 9,500,000 and 45,000,000 people per annum, very few are confirmed cases. With COVID-19 the numbers we see are confirmed cases. So let's assume the total case count will be around the same.
Now we look at the difference between 37,000 COVID-19 deaths and 44,218 flu deaths. A new study found the number of flu deaths prevented by the flu vaccine last year was around 8,000. If we can call that average, the number of deaths if we had no flu vaccine would be around 45,000.
Only about 42% of the U.S. population gets the flu vaccine. My guess is many more people will want the SARS-CoV2 vaccine when it becomes available. Finally, the COVID-19 virus mutates much slower than the flu, meaning the vaccine will be more effective than the flu vaccine and herd immunity will last longer.
Besides letting the rest of the world gloat, was shutting down the U.S. economy worth it?
Could we have averted economic shutdown and $2T further debt if we all wore masks in the beginning?
Much of what I read so far is that on average, the U.S. has hit the peak of this pandemic. Let's assume the end of the pandemic bell curve is as long as the beginning (instead of usually being shorter), so the numbers will double before it's over. That would be 1,115,180 confirmed cases and 44,218 deaths. Let's just assume any precision loss in reporting is the same for the flu and COVID-19.
Let's look at the flu numbers (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html). The average number of deaths due to the flu over the last 10 years has been around 37,000 per year (estimated 61,000 for last year). Cannot compare the case count between the flu and COVID-19 because though the flu had supposedly infected between 9,500,000 and 45,000,000 people per annum, very few are confirmed cases. With COVID-19 the numbers we see are confirmed cases. So let's assume the total case count will be around the same.
Now we look at the difference between 37,000 COVID-19 deaths and 44,218 flu deaths. A new study found the number of flu deaths prevented by the flu vaccine last year was around 8,000. If we can call that average, the number of deaths if we had no flu vaccine would be around 45,000.
Only about 42% of the U.S. population gets the flu vaccine. My guess is many more people will want the SARS-CoV2 vaccine when it becomes available. Finally, the COVID-19 virus mutates much slower than the flu, meaning the vaccine will be more effective than the flu vaccine and herd immunity will last longer.
Besides letting the rest of the world gloat, was shutting down the U.S. economy worth it?
Could we have averted economic shutdown and $2T further debt if we all wore masks in the beginning?
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